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A valid and reliable model

During the 4th International Conference on Tourism in Athens (July 2008) Pieter Cornelis presented a study about the economical effects of new attractions at a large theme park in the northern part of Europe. His presentation was unexpectedly met with approval by professor Morley from Australia who just finished his own presentation with a serious warning about the predictive validity of most marketing models. Research from Morley (2008) shows large differences in predicting results between different econometrical models. This means 'we have to be careful in blindly trusting predictions'.

However, the presentation of Cornelis was a about a so called dynamic model, and these kind of models are much more robust and trustworthy than the simple static models that most researchers use, according to Morley. Notwithstanding the Australian compliments the message of Pieter Cornelis was clear 'be careful with modelling..... Econometrical research can reduce the uncertainty about huge investments in new attractions dramatically, but we will only get real insights if our investigations are based on a solid, systematic and integrated research method'. Cornelis therefore argued for the development of a so called Attraction Response Matrix.

The first results of this matrix will be expected at the end of 2008.

 

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15/07/08 - The validity of econometrical studies.

 
 

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